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solcast
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Strengthening El Niño to reshape global irradiance for the second half of 2026
Solcast, a DNV company, forecasts that the second half of 2026 will bring above-normal irradiance across eastern Australia, Southeast Asia, northern South America and much of Europe, with the strongest model agreement in Southeast Asia and the greatest uncertainty in North America. Combined with first-half observations, the outlook suggests Europe will finish well above average overall, while regional contrasts persist in Australia, Asia, and the Americas.
Jul 13, 2026
Blocking, El Niño and extreme events redistribute solar resource in 2026 so far
Solcast, a DNV company, reports that, in the first half of 2026 solar irradiance was broadly above average across Southeast Asia, Europe, the United States, South America, and Central Africa, driven by shifting atmospheric patterns transitioning from early-year blocking and polar vortex disruption to developing El Niño conditions. Elsewhere, conditions were more mixed: Canada, Mexico, South Africa, North Africa, parts of Western Russia and Central Asia saw 5–10% deficits, while Australia, Asia, and parts of the Americas experienced strong regional variability influenced by cloud, rainfall, cyclones, dust, and smoke events.
Developing El Niño set to reshape global solar resource
In its regular update for pv magazine, Solcast, a DNV company, reports that a developing El Niño is expected to strengthen through 2026, shifting global solar irradiance patterns with regional gains in eastern Australia, India, and parts of Africa and Central America, and losses in South America and East Asia. These impacts reflect established historical patterns from past strong events, where circulation changes redistribute cloud cover and rainfall rather than uniformly increasing or decreasing solar resource.
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