Better bushfire smoke forecasting could improve solar farm output

Researchers from the University of New South Wales (UNSW) Sydney have found that smoke from major bushfires can reduce solar electricity generation by 70%, and up to 30% at solar farms as far as 150 kilometres away.

The researchers recommend better forecasting of smoke movements, more frequent panel inspections and cleaning, and changes to how solar panels operate to help operators prepare for bushfire events and protect equipment.

Using historical weather and satellite data, the researchers modelled how smoke and airborne particles affected solar electricity generation and panel temperatures across south-eastern Australia by examining the effects of the 2019-2020 Black Summer fires and Victoria’s 2009 Black Saturday fires.

Conducted by the UNSW School of Photovoltaic and Renewable Energy Engineering (SPREE), researchers estimate during the Black Summer bushfires electricity generation fell by as much as 70% at locations within about 50 kilometres of fire hotspots during several consecutive days.

In regions more than 150 kilometres from hotspots, the study estimated there were still losses of up to 30%.

“Even at a radius of 150 kilometres away from the hotspots, there was around 30% reduction on, or just after, the bushfire days, because a lot of the wind had transported the smoke inland across New South Wales,” SPREE Postdoctoral Researcher Dr Shukla Poddar said.

In the 2009 Black Saturday bushfires, the study estimated lower reductions of generated power of around 18% near fire hotspots and up to 10% in more distant regions.

The figures are modelled estimates rather than measurements from individual solar farms and the researchers were unable to separate smoke-related losses from other factors, such as electricity generation being deliberately curtailed.

Poddar said the research highlights the need to look beyond solar farms immediately surrounding a fire and consider where smoke is likely to travel.

“We should start looking into things like trajectory modelling of the smoke and how long and far those smoke particles can be transported,” Poddar said.

“Extreme bushfires are becoming more frequent and intense in several regions, including Australia, California and southern Europe. Their impacts are not confined to the areas where fires burn: smoke from California’s 2020 wildfires reached Europe, while smoke from Spain’s 2025 fires travelled as far as the UK and northwestern Europe.”

Poddar added that although this particular study is based on two extreme bushfires in Australia, the same method and analysis can be done for other parts of the world.

A key recommendation from the study is to combine bushfire information, wind patterns and smoke-trajectory modelling to help predict which solar farms are likely to be affected, similar to weather forecast systems already in use for monitoring temperatures and wind.

The research suggests warnings could allow operators to plan inspections, schedule cleaning or adjust the position of panels before smoke arrives.

“If operators got an alert that their solar farm might be impacted, they could potentially adapt some mitigation strategies, such as adjusting the panel angle where appropriate or being aware that additional cleaning may be required,” Poddar said.

Panel maintenance, particularly during bushfire periods, was also advised to avoid reduced sunlight on panel surfaces or the build up of localised hot spots due to uneven soot accumulation. Poddar recommends more frequent cleaning when smoke is likely to affect a solar farm, alongside regular thermal inspections to identify unusually hot panels or electrical components.

The research finds that better remote monitoring and electrical fault detection would also allow operators to identify temperature anomalies and quickly isolate affected parts of a system, along with managing grass and shrubs beneath panels, maintaining firebreaks and preparing bushfire management plans can help reduce the risk of fires starting or spreading within solar farms.

These and further findings in the ‘Understanding non-localised impacts of bushfires on photovoltaic performance, reliability, and management strategies’ paper have been published in the Solar Energy journal.