Victorian government modelling has forecast that tonnages of photovoltaic system e-waste will increase significantly by 2035 with growth rates around 20% per annum in anticipation of the state’s solar capacity increasing from a current 6 GW to 15.6 GW in a decade’s time.
Currently, Victoria’s solar capacity is 5 GW of rooftop solar and 1 GW of utility-scale solar, while predicted by 2035 to be 12.6 GW of distributed rooftop solar and 3 GW of large-scale solar.
In line with the state’s legislated renewable generation targets of 65% by 2030 and 95% by 2035, installations will require an additional 27 million new solar panels.
Listed as an emerging material in Victoria’s Circular Economy Market Report 2025, solar panels and associated inverters, cabling and racking belong to Australia’s fastest growing electronic waste stream, which the report says reflects the country’s world leading adoption of rooftop solar.
CSIRO modelling shows that by 2035, doubling Australia’s circularity can reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 14%, add $26 billion (USD billion) per annum in GDP, and divert 26 million tonnes per annum of materials from landfill.
Barriers to circularity
The report says Victoria lacks an established and proven capacity to process solar panels beyond basic processing of recyclable components, such as aluminium frames.
Victoria-based Elecsome, Australia’s first solar panel upcycling plant that transforms end-of-life solar panels into higher value products, has a total capacity of one million panels per annum and the current cost of recycling each solar panel in Australia is $28, roughly six times the economic cost of sending it to landfill at $4.50.
Announced in 2024, the Victorian government introduced the Breakthrough Victoria Challenge to focus attention on reducing solar waste in landfills.
Product stewardship
Photovoltaics have been listed by the Australian government on the Minister for the Environment and Water’s priority list for product stewardship since 2016-17 and is developing a mandatory product stewardship scheme to reduce waste from small electrical products and solar systems.
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“the current cost of recycling each solar panel in Australia is $28, roughly six times the economic cost of sending it to landfill at $4.50.” From a national security perspective, not being reliant on any other country for solar panels makes sense. Recycling make sense, even if it’s currently more expensive.