By the end of 2019, there will be a mix between half poly, half mono, but after that, premium mono will compete with poly. With premium mono wafer production ramping up, more utilities are leaving behind the poly technology. It is predicted by analysts that latest by 2020, demand for poly across the industry will be half of the overall demand for premium mono unless poly has a breakthrough processing improvement.
This shift marks a change in the solar market dynamics. “When we look into the future till 2022, two-thirds of the solar PV market will have panels of 430 watt and above, so it’s not like poly is conceding a big part of this market,” said Dany Qian, VP of JinkoSolar.
None of these statements are surprising. If you’re a serious investor you live, in a very real sense, in a sort of harsh competition. The investors collectively care about high-performance modules, which constitute the highest-performing and highest-value projects. In terms of generation capability, low power poly is absolutely dwarfed by premium mono.
It’s clear that, for whatever reason, poly won’t be able to convince customers to give it more chance if there’s no revolutionary change. This year, 41 percent of global module manufacturing capacity will be dedicated to mono PERC production, up from 36 percent in 2018.