Exawatt

Larger wafer and module sizes have had a profound influence on module power output in recent years but standardisation appears to have taken hold, with no further increases evident in module data, according to Molly Morgan, a senior research analyst at Exawatt, which is now part of the CRU Group.

PV manufacturing analysis is revealing that module prices can not “sustainably” fall significantly in 2024, without producers selling below cost. UK-based analysts Exawatt delivered the development last week, in a trend being observed by Australian market participants.

Manufacturing capacity has been ramping up so quickly that even impressive installation growth cannot keep pace. Molly Morgan, senior research analyst at UK-based research firm Exawatt, explores the relationship between PV supply and demand and assesses the likelihood of overproduction.

UK-based analyst Exawatt and Germany’s Nexwafe published a white paper this week that takes a close look at the current state of PV manufacturing worldwide, and how Nexwafe’s innovative wafer production tech might fit into it. They said that if the potential of its Epiwafer can be realised, the PV industry may yet see “another revolution in wafer manufacturing.”

There has been a flurry of activity within the PV cell manufacturer landscape over the past 12 to 18 months, and it’s largely been in one direction: bigger. But as large-format modules arrive on the market, questions are being raised as to how long the trend can continue and when bigger becomes, quite simply, too big.

Since 2009, when production capacity expansions began to outstrip demand for the first time, prices all along the solar supply chain fell, and have continued to do so almost continuously ever since. Simon Price, CEO of Exawatt, argues that solar is no longer in the ‘cost reduction era,’ and is now entering its ‘performance driven era,’ in which the goal for manufacturers is high performance at an acceptable cost, rather than acceptable performance at the lowest cost.