The Australian Energy Market Operator’s (AEMOs) August 2024 Electricity Statement of Opportunities (ESOO) improved reliability outlook compared to 2023 reflects roughly 5.7 GW of renewable developments over the past 12 months.
The developments which are or have progressed toward commissioning in the National Electricity Market (NEM) include 1.2 GW of large-scale solar, 3.9 GW / 13.5 GWh of batteries, 0.2 GW of hydrogen generation and 0.4 GW of wind.
However, the ESOO demonstrates more investment in renewables is key to ensuring grid reliability over the next decade to meet forecast demand while backfilling declining generation from coal-fired power station closures.
The 2024 ESOO shows reliability levels can be maintained over most of the next 10 years if programs and initiatives already established are delivered on time and in full.
AEMO recognises dispatchable and renewable energy generation projects that are not yet sufficiently progressed, and therefore not included the latest forecast, will improve grid reliability in the future.
A total of 20.2 GW of scheduled or semi-scheduled generation storage developments are classified as being in commissioning, committed or anticipated and are forecast to be operational by 2033-24, alongside existing capacity.
These include 4,500 MW of utility-scale solar generation and 8,500 MW / 22,500 MWh of utility-scale batteries, including Eraring Big Battery, Liddell battery energy storage system (BESS), Orana BESS, Richmond Valley BESS, Swanbank BESS, and Woreen BESS.
Australian Energy Market Operator
Clean Energy Council Market, Grid and Investment Policy Director Christiaan Zuur said in a LinkedIn post that vast amounts of capacity to be enabled by the Capacity Investment Scheme, the NSW Energy Roadmap, Queensland Energy and Jobs plan and the Victorian Renewable Energy Target and Victorian Transmission Plan, will improve projections “dramatically”.
“It’s not all smooth sailing, with reliability breaches remaining in the out years of the ESOO, mainly reflecting coal generation’s exit. This reiterates the need for more long duration storage to replace the energy availability that will leave the system as these final coal units retire.”
Climate Council Head of Policy and Advocacy Dr Jennifer Rayner said the 2024 ESOO is proof that the system works when governments and investors work together to get clean energy projects rolling out on time.
“The energy operator is right that rolling out solar and storage to millions more homes in a coordinated way is a huge opportunity to cut costs of living for more families and secure even more reliable energy,” Rayner said.
“If we slow or delay the roll out of clean energy then the market operator warns that the risk of blackouts and brownouts will rise, as coal-fired power stations break down and shut down. Australia is well on the path to a reliable and clean electricity system, so let’s keep powering ahead.”
Clean Energy Investor Group interim Chief Executive Officer Marilyne Crestias is reassured to see the reliability outlook improving, thanks to the progress towards commissioning 5.7 GW of new generation and storage capacity and 365 kilometres of transmission in the NEM.
“AEMO’s latest Electricity Statement of Opportunities (ESOO) report highlights the urgent need to deliver new generation and transmission projects to meet reliability standards. This is a clear call to action,” Crestias said.
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