The Australian Energy Market Operator’s (AEMOs) August 2025 Electricity Statement of Opportunities (ESOO) 10-year report finds the investments needed to maintain reliability in the National Electricity Market (NEM) are on track.
The ESOO report forecasts grid-scale renewable generation growth from 178 TWh in 2024-25 to around 229 TWh by 2034-35, which reflects a 21% increase in operational electricity consumption over that period.
A record 4.4 GW of new generation and storage was commissioned in the past financial year, and over the next five years, additional investment between 5.2 GW to 10.1 GW is expected to come online annually.
The report shows improved reliability outlooks – dependent on all expected investments being delivered on time and in full – saying it is enough to help offset the retirement of 11 GW of predominantly coal power stations, including Eraring, Bayswater and Vales Point (NSW), Yallourn (VIC) and Callide B (QLD).
It also says reliability will easily grow over the decade in step with the rapid expansion of data centres, accelerating business electrification, and the broader inclusion of prospective industrial energy users.
Image: Australian Energy Market Operator
AEMO Chief Executive Officer Daniel Westerman said the delivery of generation, storage, transmission and consumer energy resources enablement projects in the investment pipeline will likely meet reliability standards for the coming decade.
“The 10-year investment pipeline to manage energy reliability is healthy,” Westerman said.
“Considering the large volume of generation retirements over the next decade, the timely delivery of new generation, storage and transmission, along with the operation of consumer energy resources to support reliability, remain critical.”
Climate Council Councillor and Energy Expert Joel Gilmore said committed projects alone ensure Australia will have a very reliable electricity grid until after 2030.
“And, there is a huge pipeline of potential projects that set us up well for rapid cuts in climate pollution,” Gilmore said.
“At the same time the report shows there is no reason for governments to extend the life of coal power stations that are planned to close in the next few years. With a growing pipeline of wind, solar and storage projects, we can reliably power our homes and businesses without polluting coal.”
Image: Australian Energy Market Operator
Reliability gaps
Following the initial years of the 10-year outlook, reliability gaps are forecast in all mainland NEM regions, which have the potential to be managed as further projects progress towards meeting AEMO’s commitment criteria.
In addition to the investment requirements to ensure supply meets demand in all periods of the year, the report models reliability impacts from planned generation outages, gas shortfalls and drought conditions.
It also acknowledges system security challenges, critical to successful power system operation, saying AEMO will publish its annual reporting on system security in December 2025, which identifies investments required to maintain power system security.
Climate Council Councillor and Energy Expert Greg Bourne said cutting back on coal is clearly doable and the faster the shift to clean energy the more benefits flow to businesses and communities.
“Governments at all levels must continue to stimulate the investment required to fast-track the renewables rollout – including providing certainty by setting a strong 2035 climate target,” Bourne said.
This content is protected by copyright and may not be reused. If you want to cooperate with us and would like to reuse some of our content, please contact: editors@pv-magazine.com.
By submitting this form you agree to pv magazine using your data for the purposes of publishing your comment.
Your personal data will only be disclosed or otherwise transmitted to third parties for the purposes of spam filtering or if this is necessary for technical maintenance of the website. Any other transfer to third parties will not take place unless this is justified on the basis of applicable data protection regulations or if pv magazine is legally obliged to do so.
You may revoke this consent at any time with effect for the future, in which case your personal data will be deleted immediately. Otherwise, your data will be deleted if pv magazine has processed your request or the purpose of data storage is fulfilled.
Further information on data privacy can be found in our Data Protection Policy.