3.4 TW of solar and wind can support $700 billion clean energy exports opportunity

Victoria-headquartered economy think tank, the Superpower Institute (TSI) has found Australia’s total potential revenue from clean energy exports is about $700 billion (USD 457 billion) at today’s levels of industry output – or $1 trillion at forecast 2060 levels of output.

The New Energy Trade report shows opportunities where five key economies are demonstrating shortfalls in clean energy, including China, Japan, South Korea, India and Germany.

Clean energy demand in the five countries is forecast to be higher than expected and they’re on track for large shortfalls in clean electricity supply, equal to between 37 and 66% of future demand by around mid- century (or 2060 for China and 2070 for India).

The options for them to close the gap are internationally uncompetitive, which includes nuclear, showing should China triple its recent nuclear build rates, nuclear power will contribute only 7% of electricity supply in 2060.

Australian superpower exports of iron, aluminium, urea, transport fuels, and polysilicon can cut around 6.7 to 9.6% of 2021 global emissions and generate export revenue that is six to eight times higher than Australia’s current fossil fuel export revenue.

The report says the superpower trade would require around 9,000 TWh of power, which may be supplied with around 3.4 TW of wind and solar.

Based on real-world land use patterns, the deployment at that scale would directly use around 0.6% of Australian land, or 1.1% if including the space between wind turbines that may still be used for other purposes.

The report’s findings show the green electricity in the five markets would be cheaper if they import energy-intensive goods from countries with essentially limitless renewable energy resources, such as Australia.

The Superpower Institute Chair Rod Sims said the zero carbon energy gap facing China, India, Japan, South Korea and Germany creates an unparalleled role for Australia.

“The findings are as clear as day: Australia could contribute up to 10% of the world’s emissions reductions by replacing the most carbon-intensive industrial processes in countries with limited renewable energy potential; Australia has a huge role to play in the world meeting its climate objectives.”

TSI Economic Pathways Research Lead and Report Author Dr Reuben Finighan said previous analysis has generally overestimated the capacity of most countries to meet their needs through renewable energy and other zero-carbon sources such as nuclear.

“For the first time, this analysis demonstrates unequivocally that there will be significant shortfalls, and this is an immense opportunity for Australia.”

TSI Co-founder and Director Professor Ross Garnaut said Australia has played a leading role in fossil energy trade since the petroleum price and security shocks of the 1970s, helping to support industrialisation and to raise living standards of countries with poor energy endowments.

“Australia can now lead the world in new energy trade: exports of energy embodied in green commodities, and this is an extraordinary economic opportunity for our nation to replace fossil exports with larger renewable-driven industries, creating economic growth and jobs across regional Australia,” Garnaut said.

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