Rooftop solar volumes drop 34% after four month growth

The latest rooftop solar figures from market analyst SunWiz show small scale technology certificate volumes dropped sharply by 32% after four months of growth, though January outcomes were broadly in line with seasonal norms.

February 6, 2026 Ev Foley

Image: SunWiz

The latest monthly update from solar and storage market analyst SunWiz shows small scale technology certificate (STCs) volumes dropped sharply by 32% after four months of growth, though January outcomes were broadly in line with seasonal norms.

Solar volumes in December 2025 reached 224 MW, which is similar to previous years, but SunWiz recommends this not be taken as an indication of what will happen in 2026.

Average system sizes also declined after a four month growth dropping from over 11.5 kW in December 2025 to a current 10.83 kW
*Image: SunWiz*

The 50 – 70 kW segment reported the strongest decline at -57%, while the smaller residential segment declined by -24%, showing a decrease in average system size, to what is now 10.83 kW.

State and Territory performance

All states declined substantially, though Victoria proved the most resilient down only by -19%, followed by Western Australia (WA) down -22%, the Australian Capital Territory (ACT) down -34%, Queensland, -35%, South Australia (SA) and New South Wales (NSW) -37%, Tasmania, -38%, and the Northern Territory contracted -69%, however average system sizes remained elevated.

SunWiz said capacity pulled back in the mid-range, with 10–15 MW dropping to 82 MW and 8–10 MW sliding to 23 MW, while 6–8 MW held steady at 37 MW; the top three rankings were unchanged, and all other segments were flat month-on-month.

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