Opinion & Analysis

It’s been a busy couple of months in global energy and climate policy. Australia’s largest trading partners – China, South Korea and Japan – have all announced they will reach net-zero emissions by about mid-century. In the United States, the incoming Biden administration has committed to decarbonising its electricity system by 2035.

Soaring fossil fuel prices have caused the scaling back or closure of Australian mines, resulting in production and job losses at a massive scale. More recently with the added consideration of carbon emissions, energy represents both a risk and an opportunity for this sector.

Australia doesn’t yet export renewable energy. But the writing is on the wall: demand for Australia’s fossil fuel exports is likely to dwindle soon, and we must replace it at massive scale.

Cornwall Insight Australia’s Lead Consultant – Market Analysis, Lumi Adisa, compares the lead times of major coal fired power station retirements in the National Energy Market (NEM) and analyses how renewables, particularly solar plus battery storage, are able to replace lost generation in the transition to a two-sided market.

This month’s final thought comes from Violette Mouchaileh, EGM, emerging markets and services with Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO).

Could a single installation define a brief but explosive period of ambitious PV deployment? The massive 500 MW Dau Tieng solar array – among Southeast Asia’s largest PV installations – makes a strong case for being the most impressive project of Vietnam’s recent solar boom. But the allure of Dau Tieng is about much more than size – it’s about what’s beneath the PV modules.

Southeast Asia, when taken as a whole, is a global laggard in the uptake of renewable energy, but some countries are leading the way, such as Vietnam, the Philippines, and Myanmar. And as ‘Angry Clean Energy Guy’ Assaad W. Razzouk argues, policymakers in the region cannot hold back the tide of solar and wind for much longer.

Economics and common sense have to win out over a climate-denying, pro-fossil fuel government, says John Grimes, the chief executive of Australia’s Smart Energy Council. And in the absence of renewable energy targets, he argues that the power of the people seems to be leading the way.

Within this decade, the capacity of solar systems on rooftops in Australia will likely exceed the generating capacity of coal. It is now evident that solar in conjunction with other customer-side technologies of batteries and demand management will become the dominant factor in the evolution of Australia’s energy system, writes Tristan Edis, the director of analysis for Green Energy Markets. He adds one caveat, however: For this to occur, batteries must become cost competitive.

Rising gas prices, increased energy security and economic recovery at all costs pose risks to Asia’s power sector gas demand growth.