India’s green hydrogen demand to reach 2.85 MMT/year by 2030, says USAID


From pv magazine India

If India maintains its current momentum and implements announced projects, it will achieve an annual green hydrogen demand of 2.85 MMT by 2030, according to SAREP. The transition will require a total investment of USD 57.6 billion ($85.3b).

The report states that the fertiliser and export sectors will account for nearly 37% (1.02 MMT) and 29% (0.81 MMT) of the total 2.85 MMT green hydrogen demand.

In the base case scenario, the report authors assumed that 10% of India’s refineries would switch to green hydrogen, 10% of existing city gas distribution pipelines would be blended with green hydrogen, 50% of ammonia-based fertiliser imports would be replaced with domestic green ammonia, and the country would meet 6% of its demand from target importing countries by 2030.

To meet these green hydrogen demand estimates, the report says India will need 62 GW of additional renewable energy capacity, 29 GW of electrolyser capacity, and 11 MMT per annum of ammonia infrastructure. This represents an estimated investment need of USD 36 billion, USD 15 billion, and USD 6 billion, respectively, by 2030.

Multiple oil public sector undertakings (PSUs) have announced internal targets for the adoption of green hydrogen. The report authors considered internal targets from leading oil PSUs in arriving at the estimates from oil refining and natural gas blending industries.

India is well positioned to emerge as a green hydrogen production hub, given its excellent renewable energy resources, including an installed capacity of 62+ GW solar and 42+ GW wind, existing consumption markets for hydrogen and its derivative products, and availability of suitable sites that can be developed into green hydrogen hubs. 

The report states these advantages will allow producers in India to achieve amongst the lowest levelised costs for green hydrogen and green ammonia, estimated at USD 3,800-4,800 per tonne and USD 850-1,100 per tonne, respectively.

The Indian government’s National Hydrogen Mission (NHM) has added further momentum to the growth of the sector. Under the mission, India targets a green hydrogen production capacity of at least 5 MMT/annum by 2030.

The report states India will require an investment of USD 99.4 billion under the best-case scenario where it reaches annual green hydrogen demand of 5 MMT by 2030 as targeted under the NHM. In this scenario, it assumes the government will introduce significant mandates, subsidies, and other incentives to drive demand in green hydrogen sub-sectors to push production capacity to at least 5 MMT by 2030, in line with the NHM target.

Author: Uma Gupta

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