AEMO forecasts potential reliability gaps as early as 2026-27 in South Australia (SA) and 2027-28 in New South Wales (NSW), based on current committed and anticipated projects, but in response to new investment would change.
The findings appear in the Australian Energy Market Commission Reliability Panel National Electricity Market (NEM) Reliability and Security Report released 26 June 2025.
The report acknowledges the NEM continued to maintain high levels of reliability in the 2023-24 period, when the end of FY 2024 saw 16.6 GW of committed and anticipated projects, and 259.6 GW of proposed utility-scale solar, battery and wind developments.
It does however call for more investment in generation, beyond current committed projects to meet reliability standards in future years.
Reliability Panel Chair Tim Jordan said the Panel’s report highlights the significant transformation the NEM is undergoing as it transitions from a thermal-dominated system to one increasingly powered by renewable energy and storage.
“Battery storage is growing rapidly – utility-scale batteries doubled in capacity in FY2024, and distributed batteries tripled. That shows the market is adapting well,” Jordan said.
“Looking forward, however, the Panel recognises that AEMO is forecasting reliability gaps as early as 2026-27. Continued investment beyond current commitments is crucial for maintaining reliable electricity supply.”
A NEM review of wholesale market settings is underway to promote investment in firmed, renewable generation and storage capacity in the NEM following the conclusion of the Capacity Investment Scheme tenders in 2027, the report says.
Reliability gaps in NSW for 2025-26 and 2026-27 are no longer forecast due to the delayed retirement of Eraring Power Station.
Image: Australian Energy Market Operator
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