The Clean Energy Regulator’s (CER) quarterly carbon market report finds rooftop solar capacity in 2024 Australia is likely to have been about 3.2 GW and would set an Australian record, with new data due in April to clarify the year’s probable total.
Small-scale technology certificates (STC) claims for 3.09 GW were processed by the CER in March 2025, above the 3.02 GW in the same month for the 2023 calendar year, and which ended that year with a total of 3.14 GW, prompting the 2024 estimate of 3.2 GW.
The final figure will be available once all claims are received, which can take up a year from the time of installation.
An estimated 2.9 GW to 3.2 GW of rooftop solar is expected to be added to the grid in 2025, with current trends suggesting the higher end of the range, tracking at a similar level to 2024’s record.
CERs data also sees a clear trend over the last three years of total installations being down by 4% or 0.9 GW but the total capacity and average system size, which reached 10 kW in 2024, as both increasing. It’s estimated 33.6 million STCs were created in 2024.
Image: Clean Energy Regulator
Batteries
There was a significantly higher percentage of new small-scale systems being installed with batteries in 2024 relative to previous years, and data voluntarily reported to the CER shows that 10% of systems were battery-connected in 2024, up from 8% in 2023.
The data also indicates a strong uptick of systems reported as having batteries in Q4, largely driven by the NSW battery incentive scheme.
Image: Clean Energy Regulator
Importantly, increasing capacity of storage will be important to ensure the rapid increase in generation from rooftop solar does not result in increasing curtailment of large-scale wind and solar to maintain power system security.
In addition, increases in storage help allow further large increases of rooftop solar capacity to be connected without creating security issues in both low and high voltage networks or the need to forcibly ‘trip’ or tun off rooftop solar.
Battery installations also reached a 10% record in 2024 based on data voluntarily provided to the CER, which says the share of new installations with batteries is likely higher, with market analysts estimating a 2023 figure of around 17%.
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