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According to reports from Energy Trend, a 30% decline in PV demand from China this year will likely spell trouble for some of the country’s major module manufacturers, with job losses and factory closures expected, despite China’s determination to open new international markets for its PV industry.

In what analysts worldwide are sure to look back on as the last golden period for global solar – at least for the immediate future – China saw more impressive figures for PV manufacturing in the first half of the year. Then the government stepped in.

Following a strong year for clean energy spending, 2017 saw a 7% decline in renewable power investment – to around $298 billion – while the share of fossil fuels in energy supply funding rose for the first time since 2014, according to the International Energy Agency in a report published today.

The latest reports from analysts at PV InfoLink and EnergyTrend show prices continuing to fall, though at a slower rate than was seen immediately after China’s 31/5 announcements. High efficiency mono-PERC modules fell to around $0.32/W, while multicrystalline module prices hold steady between $0.26 and $0.29/W.

In a Q&A with Bloomberg NEF (BNEF), two solar analysts tell pv magazine they see no PV module price rebound, continuing oversupply, and falling utilization rates. They expect Q4 could be a “hot market” for contract negotiations, while Chinese developers will start overseas construction earlier than planned for two key reasons.

While overall global investment in clean energy saw a decrease of just 1% YoY in the first half of 2018, solar’s share dropped 19% following changes to China’s PV policy and lower project costs, says Bloomberg NEF (BNEF). It forecasts this trend to continue throughout the year.

The Taiwanese analysts expect that overcapacity will force some solar players to abandon their business or file for bankruptcy. IHS Markit also sees further price declines and consolidation in the third quarter, although it does forecast signs of a speedy recovery.

The latest figures from the Taiwanese analysts show that prices for monocrystalline solar PV products have fallen sharply in a week-on-week comparison. The price drop for wafer was even stronger.

According to a new report from the PV Market Alliance (PVMA), the global solar PV market will only be marginally affected by the recent China policy decisions, and will grow to become an up to 200 GW market by 2022. Diversification will continue, with new segments accounting for up to 25% of the entire market by this time.

Following Monday’s announcement, pv magazine spoke to Lior Handelsman, of SolarEdge. The company VP is adamant Huawei has infringed the Israeli firm’s intellectual property, and says defending IP will see the PV industry grow.