Regulator points to record-breaking year for renewables

Australia is on track to add a record 7.5 GW of renewable energy capacity to the grid this year according to modelling published by the federal government’s Clean Energy Regulator.

November 29, 2024 David Carroll

Image: pv magazine

The latest Quarterly Carbon Market Report (QCMR) from the Clean Energy Regulator (CER) shows between 7.2 GW and 7.5 GW of new solar and wind capacity is expected to be added to Australia’s electricity grid in 2024, surpassing the record of 7.16 GW added in 2020.

The report projects that renewables will account for an average of 45% of Australia’s electricity generation in 2025, having been responsible for about one third of electricity in the national grid in the past 12 months. The federal government’s target is for 82% of Australia’s electricity to come from renewable sources by 2030.

Large-scale projects are expected to provide more than half of the new capacity this year with CER Acting Chair and Chief Executive Officer Carl Binning saying there’s been a substantial jump in approved capacity of large-scale renewable energy power stations that are reaching first generation in 2024.

“We expect more than 4.2 GW of large-scale renewable energy capacity will be accredited for entry to the Renewable Energy Target in 2024,” he said.

At the end of October 2024, 3.6 GW had been approved and the CER expects another 700 MW will likely be approved before the end of 2024. An additional 1.2 GW of large-scale capacity has been applied for and is expected to be approved early next year.

The CER also expects 3.15 GW of rooftop PV capacity to be installed in 2024, exceeding its initial expectation of 3.1 GW for the year. This is almost as high as the record 3.19 GW installed in 2021, which was driven by a home improvement boom during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Approved large-scale wind and solar capacity in GW
*Image: CER*

Federal Energy Minister Chris Bowen welcomed the updated figures as “an all-time record,” adding that they highlight that the pace of the clean energy transition is picking up.

“Over the past year an increase in private and public investment has helped position Australia to build a stronger, diversified and more resilient economy,” he said.

“More private capital went into developing new clean, cheap, reliable renewable energy projects in the quarter just gone, than was invested in all of 2023.”

The CER said 1.2 GW of large-scale capacity reached a final investment decision during the September quarter, including the 376 MW Broadsound hybrid solar and battery project in Queensland and the 250 MW Goorambat solar facility in Victoria.

“Three gigawatts of capacity has reached a final investment decision to date in 2024,” the regulator said. “This has nearly doubled the total capacity that reached final investment decision in 2023 (1.7 GW).”

Small-scale rooftop solar installations and installed capacity in MW
*Image: CER*

In the three months to the end of September, 81,000 rooftop solar systems were installed with a total capacity of 800 MW, on par with the 820 MW installed in Q3 2023.

The regulator said that replacement rooftop PV systems are now a material part of installed capacity with systems in 2024 being on average 5.4 kW larger than those they are replacing. Replacement systems are expected to contribute about 10 % of capacity for all installed systems in 2024.

The trend of increasing average rooftop system sizes has continued with the average system size installed in the Q3 2024 increasing to 9.9 kW, compared to 9.4 kW in the same period last year.

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